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CIBC: BoC Survey As Expected, Hike No Later Than April

CANADA
  • CIBC note that the latest BoC survey “told us what we already knew: business leaders had widespread optimism on growth, and trepidation about wage and price inflation, just before the omicron wave hit”.
  • “There’s a consensus that wages, sales growth, hiring, and capital spending will pick up in the year ahead, and widespread issues with supply chain bottlenecks and labour availability”.
  • The only real positive for inflation came from firms expecting it to ease over the subsequent two years after running above 3% in 2022, according to many respondents.
  • Re-running the survey today would likely hit growth optimism among services firms, “but inflation expectations would no doubt remain elevated”.
  • “Although omicron will dent the start of 2022 and the uncertainties on how long that will last could keep the Bank from hiking this month, assuming we’re waving goodbye to it in March, that will set the stage for a first hike no later than April”.
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