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Final Data Broadly Confirms Flash HICP Details

EUROZONE DATA
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Eurozone Final HICP confirmed the July flash prints, at 2.6% Y/Y (vs 2.5% in June) and 0.0% M/M (vs 0.2% in June). Energy inflation increased for the third consecutive month, whilst Processed food, alcohol & tobacco and non-energy industrial goods (NEIG, or core goods) remained broadly at June levels, and services disinflated a touch Y/Y.

  • Core inflation printed in line with flash at 2.9% Y/Y (2.9% prior) and -0.2% M/M from 0.4% in June.
  • The final reading shows the contribution from services fell marginally although it remains stubborn, as the contribution range has remained between 1.82 to 1.84pp in the last three consecutive months.
  • Meanwhile, non-energy industrial goods prices contribution rose to the highest since April 2024 to 0.19pp (vs 0.17 prior) - which is not surprising following ECB GC member Schnabel recently drew attention to the risk of NEIG inflation rising in the next few months amid supply chain disruptions.
  • Energy inflation's contribution also rose to 0.12pp (from 0.02pp in June), which is expected as downward base effects continue to fade.
  • Finally, 'Processed food, alcohol & tobacco' and 'Unprocessed foods' inflation contribution edged down slightly to 0.41pp (vs 0.42pp prior) and 0.05pp (vs 0.06 prior).
  • At a country level, France and Slovakia saw a revision from flash HICP Y/Y of +0.1pp, whilst Croatia, Belgium, Italy, and Finland saw a -0.1pp revision and Cyprus saw HICP revised down 0.2pp.



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Eurozone Final HICP confirmed the July flash prints, at 2.6% Y/Y (vs 2.5% in June) and 0.0% M/M (vs 0.2% in June). Energy inflation increased for the third consecutive month, whilst Processed food, alcohol & tobacco and non-energy industrial goods (NEIG, or core goods) remained broadly at June levels, and services disinflated a touch Y/Y.

  • Core inflation printed in line with flash at 2.9% Y/Y (2.9% prior) and -0.2% M/M from 0.4% in June.
  • The final reading shows the contribution from services fell marginally although it remains stubborn, as the contribution range has remained between 1.82 to 1.84pp in the last three consecutive months.
  • Meanwhile, non-energy industrial goods prices contribution rose to the highest since April 2024 to 0.19pp (vs 0.17 prior) - which is not surprising following ECB GC member Schnabel recently drew attention to the risk of NEIG inflation rising in the next few months amid supply chain disruptions.
  • Energy inflation's contribution also rose to 0.12pp (from 0.02pp in June), which is expected as downward base effects continue to fade.
  • Finally, 'Processed food, alcohol & tobacco' and 'Unprocessed foods' inflation contribution edged down slightly to 0.41pp (vs 0.42pp prior) and 0.05pp (vs 0.06 prior).
  • At a country level, France and Slovakia saw a revision from flash HICP Y/Y of +0.1pp, whilst Croatia, Belgium, Italy, and Finland saw a -0.1pp revision and Cyprus saw HICP revised down 0.2pp.