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CIBC Broadly With A Consensus View For Payrolls

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Noting low initial claims through the payroll reference period, CIBC forecast nonfarm payrolls growth of a “healthy” 220k (cons 240k) ahead of Friday’s release.
  • “However, that likely represented a filling of past job openings, rather than new demand for labor”, whilst “cyclical sectors could have also slowed hiring, particularly residential construction, reflecting the impact of past rate hikes on demand.”
  • This solid pace of employment growth would normally imply a drop in the unemployment rate although they look for an unchanged 3.6% as a result of a “further increase in the prime-age participation rate, in line with dwindling excess savings”.
  • Finally, they look for AHE growth of 0.3% M/M and all up would expect such an outturn to keep the Fed on a path to a 25bp hike in May before pausing.
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