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CIBC On Friday’s Retail Sales

CANADA
  • CIBC note the 0.4% M/M suggested by the advance estimate for July retail sales, “but that comes on the heels of sluggish goods consumption in Q2, and would still leave sales within the range seen since the start of the year, and down slightly in per-capita terms from year-ago levels.”
  • “Auto sales could have been weaker than the headline given the drop in unit sales, leaving ex. auto retail sales at 0.5%” which is in line with Blomberg consensus.
  • “We don’t expect the momentum to continue ahead, however, as the increase in the unemployment rate and the lagged effects of monetary policy will limit discretionary consumption as households are squeezed by mortgage renewals at higher interest rates.”
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