Free Trial

Circa 50/50 Odds Of Fed March Cut

STIR
  • Rates continue to see some large moves, with SFRZ3/Z4 touching a low of -129bps before lifting to -123bps for still -11.5bps on the day.
  • Softer details within the GDP print and Bostic adding to dovish tones from Waller yesterday have helped set the tone, with Barkin still open to hikes helping the reversal off lows.
  • A latest run of Fed Funds implied rates shows expectations for a first cut in May more firmly priced (cumulative 28bp), with now 50/50 probability of a March cut.
  • It builds to a cumulative 116bp to year-end, with the 4.17% Dec’24 implied 6bps below where it was pre-GDP revisions, 27bp pre-Waller and 42bps pre US CPI.

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.