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Circa 75bps Of Cuts Priced For 2023 Post-FOMC Conference In Push Back To Dots

STIR FUTURES
  • Year-end rate expectations have pulled off lows touched during Chair Powell’s press conference, with FOMC-dated OIS stabilising at circa 4.20% with the conference over (Fed Funds about 2bps higher) but still down from nearer 4.35% prior to the announcement.
  • Terminal pricing has been resilient around 4.95% throughout the announcement and the press conference, implying just 13bps of a hike priced for May.
  • It leaves around 75bps of cuts priced to year-end compared to nearer 60bps at yesterday’s close, in continued push back to Powell saying the FOMC doesn’t see rate cuts this year in the press conference (and per the SEP dots).
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