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Citi bank commenting on the RBNZ now...........>

RBNZ
RBNZ: Citi bank commenting on the RBNZ now forecast 50bps of OCR cuts this year.
- Citi suspect that a move to bias policy expectations lower came from concerns
over the currency. The statement mentions easing in central bank expectations
globally "placing upward pressure on the New Zealand dollar". This is surprising
given that the TWI is still slightly below the 74.0 level forecast for Q1 in the
February MPS. Furthermore, the TWI hasn't appreciated meaningfully so far this
year. The outlook for 2019 and 2020 around 73.5 implies no loss in exchange rate
competitiveness.
- They now expect Governor Orr to follow through with the guidance for a rate
cut. The nearest opportunity will be the 8 May OCR and MPS. The Governor has now
shown that he is prepared to run the economy hot in the pursuit of maintaining
maximum sustainable employment and forcing CPI inflation back to the mid-point
of the target band. Our OCR call is now for -25bps on May 8 and a further -25bps
on August 7. Both these dates correspond with MPS releases and press
conferences.
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