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Citi Cuts Brent Forecast Amid Market Surplus


Citigroup have lowered the Brent price outlook for 2024 by $1/bbl to $74/bbl while the 2025 forecast has been cut by $10 to $60/bbl.

  • The analysts estimate that geopolitical risk in the Middle East had added $2-$3/bbl to the Brent price but may increase if supply disruptions expand.
  • Global oil markets are likely to change into a 1.2mbpd surplus on average, assuming the start of tapering to OPEC+ cuts in Q2 2025.
  • "We believe softer market fundamentals, absent major supply disruptions, will result in OPEC+ rolling over its Q1 2024 production cuts throughout the whole 2024 and start tapering them only in H2 2025."
  • "2025 looks to pose more challenges for OPEC+, as a large surplus looms despite extended production cuts, which in our base case is likely to make it increasingly difficult to protect $70/bbl on a Brent basis."

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