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Citi Forecasts OPEC+ Cuts to Push Through 2024

OIL

Citi expects OPEC+ to maintain its voluntary cuts through 2024 due to global surplus expectations according to Max Layton, its Head of Commodities Research in a Bloomberg tv interview.

  • “We think overall, a lot of the move is done” referring to the recent price collapse following the latest OPEC+ meet Leyton said.
  • “OPEC+ is doing some work to rebalance the market in the first quarter and our base case is they will be successful in doing that.” he said.
  • “The pressure increases for them [OPEC+] to roll these cuts forward for the remainder of the year” Leyton said.
  • “We forecast around a 1mn bpd surplus for the second quarter [next year]” and a 0.6mn bpd surplus through the whole of 2024 he added.
  • “These cuts do need to be maintained to balance the market through the course of next year, in our base case.” Leyton said.
  • If the OPEC+ nations work together to comply with cuts they can hold crude in the $70-80/bbl range according to Layton but if spare capacity comes back online he warns of collapsing prices.

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