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Citi Month-End Model Points to Net USD Selling for July

CROSS ASSET

Citi's prelim month-end FX rebalancing model sees net USD sales into the end of July:

  • Model points to a net need to sell USD this month, with a signal strength inline with the historical norm.
  • Gains in US assets leave foreign investors under-hedged, fuelling the net USD sell signal this month.
  • EURUSD signal is the one stand-out, with the buy EURUSD signal the weakest due to the strength of Eurozone fixed income markets.
  • On potential front-loading of month-end flows, their model has not seen signs of real money buying of any FX other than NZD and GBP, which suggests little front-loading of rebalancing trades so far.
  • On asset rebalancing, their model signals selling of equities and buying of bonds. Outflows from US equity markets make up most of the need, with most other equity and bond markets seeing rebalancing inflows.
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