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Citi Revise 2021 Year-End Headline CPI Forecast To 6.1% From 5.6%

MEXICO
  • Inflation in Mexico remained very high in June. Monthly core inflation reached a 22-year high driven by merchandise and food and tourism services.
  • The recent significant inflation surprises led Citi analysts to recalibrate their inflation trajectories, which now imply more persistent core pressures throughout the rest of the year than before.
  • Despite June's m/m inflation figures being exactly in line with their projections, they were very high again in historical terms.
  • On the positive side, some service prices remain subdued and meat and dairy inflation rates have moderated at the margin.
  • Given its recent trend, they expect core inflation to decelerate at a slower pace than before, recording on average monthly prints slightly above its historical median in the rest of the year. Thus, Citi estimate year-end core inflation at 4.6% from 4.2% before.
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