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Citi's Final Month-End Model Sees Stronger USD Sell Signal vs. Prelim

FOREX
  • Citi's final FX month-end estimate sees modest USD sales November 30th.- The final signal has strengthened slightly relative to the prelim.
  • Today’s net USD sell signal comes from foreign investors’ needs to hedge gains in US stocks as well as US investors’ needs to reduce hedges on under-performing foreign equities. Fixed income hedge rebalancing flows are expected to be marginally USD positive.
  • In terms of pairs, the signal to sell USD/JPY is the strongest, at 0.8 SD. This is driven by Japanese investors’ rebalancing of foreign fixed income hedges as well as foreign investors’ needs to reduce hedges on Japanese equities.
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