CPI Miss Driven By Comprehensively Slower Services Inflation (1/2)

Breaking down the reasons for June's CPI miss (no analyst of 23 previews we'd read expected under +0.1% core) - it's pretty comprehensive across the board:

• Supercore (services ex-housing) inflation printed negative again, at -0.05% (-0.04% prior), vs +0.27% expected, for the first back-to-back deflations since Aug-Sep 2021 (the lowest analyst expectation we'd seen was Nomura's +0.15%).
• Overall core services printed just +0.13%, vs +0.32% MNI avg (and 0.22% May), the lowest since August 2021.
• As noted, housing inflation had been expected to slow but the drop was much bigger than expected: OER rose just 0.28% (+0.38% expected,+ 0.43% prior), with tenant rents +0.26% (+0.34% exp., +0.39% prior). Those readings are back to early 2021 levels.
• The soft supercore reading comes despite auto insurance snapping back higher as had been expected (+0.92% v +0.80% exp, -0.12% prior).
• Lodging (-2.0% vs -0.8% exp, -0.1% prior) and airfares (-5.0% vs -1.1% exp, -3.6% prior) were much weaker than expected. Medical care services were soft at 0.17%, half of May's rate and the lowest since Feb.