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Citi Stand By Call For Initial 50BP Rate Cut

  • Citi expect BCCh to begin easing in its July policy meeting, delivering a 50bps cut. Inflation has been trending down, with headline standing at 7.6% Y/y in June, below expectations at 7.9% per the latest Bloomberg survey.
  • Softer inflation makes a cut this week very plausible, with BCCh's July Expectations Survey showing that 47 out of 50 respondents expect a cut in July. Citi stand by their call for an initial 50bp move, though the median call stands at 75bps.
  • While Citi believe the risks lie toward a stronger 75bp cut, they do not believe BCCh would move to surprise the market with an even stronger move than the median call.
  • Going forward, Citi expect inflation to continue trending down through year end and reach target band in 1Q24, in line CB projections, which should allow BCCh to deliver up to 300bps in cuts this year. CLP carry is likely to remain worst in LatAm FX from here.

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