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Citi Survey Indicates 25Bp Hike From Banxico In March

  • Citi published the results of biweekly analysts’ survey in email late yesterday. For reference, the results are the median forecast of about 30 analysts:
    • Analysts Raise 2022 CPI Est. to 4.50% Vs. 4.40%: Citi
    • Next rate move to be a 25 bps increase in march
    • 2023 yr-end inflation held at 3.70%
    • 2022 GDP cut to 2.10% from 2.20%, 2023 GDP held at 2.10%
    • 2022 yr-end rate raised to 7.25% from 7.00%
    • 2023 yr-end rate raised to 7.50% from 7.25%
  • Not much to report in terms of MXN price action with the local currency continue to trade firmly and USDMXN edging through 20.25 support. A sustained break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 20.1196, Oct 26 low ahead of the 20.00 handle.
  • Mexico Bi-weekly CPI data will be published tomorrow as well as December retail sales. Economic activity is due on Friday.

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