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Citi Survey Points To 50BPs Rate Cut In March

COLOMBIA
  • The Citi survey of expectations was released on Monday, with the results confirming that BanRep are expected to increase the pace of easing in March. It is worth noting that BanRep’s board is meeting o Thursday, but this is not a rate decision meeting. The central bank is said to use the Citi survey as one of its indicators for inflation expectations, the monetary policy rate, growth and the exchange rate.
  • GDP growth estimates were revised lower. The consensus forecast for economic growth in 2024 was 1.27%, 18bps lower than the prior survey. In similar vein, 2025 growth projections now stand at 2.53%, declining by 10bps.
  • On average, headline inflation is expected to be 1% m/m in February, bringing annual inflation down to 7.64% y/y from the current level of 8.35%.
  • 19 out of 24 analysts expect BanRep to cut the monetary policy rate by 50bps to 12.25%, and 4 are expecting a larger 75bp cut.
  • Surveyed analysts expect rates to close at 8%, while for 2025, consensus expectations see the rate dropping to around 5.50%.
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