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CITI trade idea to buy USDCAD at......>

DOLLAR-CANADA
DOLLAR-CANADA: CITI trade idea to buy USDCAD at C$1.2860, target C$1.3115, stop
at C$1.2750. Citi note Yields are doing the heavy lifting for the USD and we
expect this continue. This may be increasingly negative for 'risky' currencies
if tightening in financial conditions sees investors reduce exposure. With few
US releases of note in the week ahead and no major shift in tone anticipated
from Fed speakers or the FOMC Minutes, it is not clear what is likely to reverse
expectations on US outperformance that kicked off recent moves. While there has
been a shift in favour of long USD positioning among short-term investors in
recent weeks, CAD buying has lagged behind. According to our Global Flows
analysis, investors have actually been buyers of CAD in recent weeks. The recent
flagging in buying momentum may signal that the impact of higher oil prices and
optimism on NAFTA is better discounted and risk-return may favour some catch-up
from CAD with the broader USD buying move. 

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