Citigroup Cut Global Gas Price Estimates Amid Mild Winter

Citigroup cut its estimates for global natural gas prices as a mild winter in all three major markets of North America, Europe and Asia limits demand according to Dow Jones.

• The new estimates are close to its 5% warmer winter scenarios forecast in November.
• The Henry Hub base case forecast for 2024 has been cut from $3/mmbtu to $2.4/mmbtu with $2.30/mmbtu in Q1 falling to $2.10 in Q2 and Q3.
• "U.S. prices could get a lift later this year from yet another hot summer, particularly in Texas, robust industrial growth and strong exports to Mexico. However, strong U.S. production should cap price upside."
• Storage refills and potential supply risks could provide more upside to Europe and Asian prices from Q2. TTF is estimated at 36€/MWh in 2024, down from 46€/MWh, and Asian JKM LNG prices have been revised to $12.80/mmBtu from $17.30/mmbtu previously.
• "Barring some unexpected strong cold fronts hitting and lingering in the U.S., Europe or Asia, prices should generally decline seasonally until late 1Q or early 2Q."