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Cleveland Fed Core CPI Nowcast Consistent With Consensus

US DATA
  • The Cleveland Fed core CPI nowcast pencils in 0.33% M/M for December, having now had almost identical figures for the past three months.
  • The nowcast hasn’t undershot realized core CPI inflation since Sep’22, with an average overshoot of 0.11% M/M since then and most recently a 0.05pp overshoot in November.
  • A similar overshoot to November would leave it very much in line with consensus of 0.3% median (0.25% average).
  • The nowcast sees headline CPI at 0.30% M/M.

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