Cleveland Fed Pres. Mester, voter, in remarks...>

FED: Cleveland Fed Pres. Mester, voter, in remarks to CFA Society Chicago: 

- Fed should evaluate "several scenarios rather than focusing only on a modal

forecast." Some more pessimistic outcomes are "almost as likely" as the baseline

outlook for a rebound in the second half.

- See slow recovery and accommodative rates continuing through 2021. "Low rates

cannot stop the sharp drop in activity caused by the pandemic shutdown, but once

the economy begins to reopen, accommodative monetary policy will be needed for

some time to support the recovery." 

- Most severe effects likely in 2Q; see 2Q GDP somewhere between market

estimates of -25% to -40%, unemployment 20%+. Expect inflation to move down

further this year due to sharp pullback in demand