MNI Global Week Ahead - ECB and US CPI Headline
MNI (LONDON) - See here for the key events next week in Developed and Emerging Markets:
Developed Markets
TUESDAY - UK Labour Market Data
UK labour market data is due for release on Tuesday, and it remains one of the most notable data releases for the MPC. An early consensus looks for the unemployment rate to tick down another tenth to 4.1% in the 3-months to July (although unrounded it only rounded up to 4.2% but a small margin as it was 4.16% prior; which was notably below the BOE/consensus June forecasts). Private sector average weekly earnings numbers remain key (last month 5.242% vs 5.2% MNI median, 5.1% BOE). We will round up expectations for this in next week’s UK Labour Market Preview PDF. The claimant count has come into focus recently after some notable pickups, but this is largely due to changes surrounding claim eligibility and hard to really deduce any proper signal from it at present.
WEDNESDAY - US August CPI
The week’s inflation data could prove more of a deciding factor in market expectations of a 25bp or 50bp cut from the FOMC later this month than we first thought. Considering Payrolls explicitly doesn't want to see anymore softening in the labor market, Friday’s payrolls report importantly showed no real change in the unemployment rate but payrolls growth was softer than expected and importantly saw heavy downward two-month revisions. That brings up CPI (Wed) in particular but also PPI (Thu) for latest core PCE implications. Fed Funds have recently been pricing more than 35bp of cuts for the Sep 18 decision, but we expect we’d need to see a sizeable core CPI miss and a return of particularly weak CPI core services ex-housing for the Fed to seriously consider a 50bp cut. Bloomberg consensus currently looks for core CPI at 0.2% M/M for an unchanged 3.2% Y/Y. Note that the releases will land firmly within the Fed’s blackout period ahead of the Sep 17-18 meeting.
THURSDAY - ECB Decision
The ECB is unanimously expected to cut its deposit rate by 25bps to 3.50%. Markets have been pricing such an outcome for several weeks now, with focus on the pace of easing ahead and the revised macroeconomic projections. Consensus amongst ECB speakers and analysts continues to centre around the case for quarterly cuts (though the market sees a more aggressive cycle), with sticky services inflation a key hurdle to a more aggressive easing cycle. While explicit guidance from President Lagarde is unlikely, she may hint toward the December meeting as a signpost for "more data" and a new set of projections, thereby shifting focus away from the October gathering. The ECB will also narrow the corridor between its three key interest rates at the September meeting, following the bank's Framework Review in March. The MRO rate will be set at 15 basis points over the DFR (implying a 3.65% rate, vs 4.25% prior), and the MLF rate at 25bp over the MRO (implying a 3.90% rate, vs 4.50% prior). The MNI Policy Team has reported that it is likely to be many months before any effect on policy transmission is felt from this change.
Emerging Markets
MONDAY - China August Inflation Data
Next week’s data on pricing for August will provide insight as to the immediacy of the problem that the government faces in a slowing economy. Monday will see the release of both PPI and CPI. PPI market consensus is for an increasing contraction to -1.4% following last month’s contraction of -0.8%. July saw, with the exception of Mining and Raw Materials, a contraction across all other segments. CPI is also released where at present the market consensus is for an August rise of 0.7% versus a prior rise of 0.5%. Whilst remaining in positive territory, a CPI print such as this is not reflective of an economy growing at the growth rates desired by the government. CPI has remained tepid at best for over a year now and the counteractive policies implemented thus far have failed to arrest this trend. Monday will also see Aggregate Financing / Net New CNY loan data, while trade data is released on Tuesday.
THURSDAY - BCRP (Peru)
The fall of core inflation to within the BCRP’s target band for the first time since January, along with the weak June economic activity print and expectation that the Fed will start an easing cycle this month, keeps the door open for the BCRP to deliver another 25bp rate cut to 5.25% next week.
FRIDAY - CBR Decision (Russia)
Analyst views are mixed over whether the Central Bank of Russia will deliver a rate hike of 100bps or stand pat at 18%. At its last meeting in July, the central bank raised its benchmark interest rate by 200bps to 18% and indicated that tight monetary policy would remain for some time to achieve a sustainable slowdown in inflation. In the base-case scenario presented by the CBR, the key interest rate is expected to remain in double digits for two more years.
Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
09/09/2024 | 2301/0001 | ** | ![]() | KPMG/REC Jobs Report |
09/09/2024 | 2350/0850 | ** | ![]() | GDP (r) |
09/09/2024 | 0130/0930 | *** | ![]() | CPI |
09/09/2024 | 0130/0930 | *** | ![]() | Producer Price Index |
09/09/2024 | 1400/1000 | ** | ![]() | Wholesale Trade |
09/09/2024 | 1500/1100 | ** | ![]() | NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations |
09/09/2024 | 1530/1130 | * | ![]() | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
09/09/2024 | 1530/1130 | * | ![]() | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
09/09/2024 | 1900/1500 | * | ![]() | Consumer Credit |
10/09/2024 | 0600/0800 | *** | ![]() | HICP (f) |
10/09/2024 | 0600/0700 | *** | ![]() | Labour Market Survey |
10/09/2024 | 0600/0800 | *** | ![]() | CPI Norway |
10/09/2024 | 0700/0900 | ** | ![]() | Industrial Production |
10/09/2024 | 0800/1000 | * | ![]() | Industrial Production |
10/09/2024 | 0900/1000 | * | ![]() | Index Linked Gilt Outright Auction Result |
10/09/2024 | 1000/0600 | ** | ![]() | NFIB Small Business Optimism Index |
10/09/2024 | 1100/1200 | ![]() | BOE's Breeden remarks from Wharton-IMF Dialogue - Text release | |
10/09/2024 | - | *** | ![]() | Trade |
10/09/2024 | - | *** | ![]() | Money Supply |
10/09/2024 | - | *** | ![]() | New Loans |
10/09/2024 | - | *** | ![]() | Social Financing |
10/09/2024 | 1210/0810 | ![]() | BOC Governor Macklem speech in London UK | |
10/09/2024 | 1255/0855 | ** | ![]() | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
10/09/2024 | 1530/1130 | * | ![]() | US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill |
10/09/2024 | 1700/1300 | *** | ![]() | US Note 03 Year Treasury Auction Result |
11/09/2024 | 0600/0700 | ** | ![]() | UK Monthly GDP |
11/09/2024 | 0600/0700 | ** | ![]() | Trade Balance |
11/09/2024 | 0600/0700 | ** | ![]() | Index of Services |
11/09/2024 | 0600/0700 | *** | ![]() | Index of Production |
11/09/2024 | 0600/0700 | ** | ![]() | Output in the Construction Industry |
11/09/2024 | 0900/1000 | ** | ![]() | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
11/09/2024 | 1100/0700 | ** | ![]() | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
11/09/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** | ![]() | CPI |
11/09/2024 | 1230/0830 | * | ![]() | Intl Investment Position |
11/09/2024 | 1400/1000 | * | ![]() | Services Revenues |
11/09/2024 | 1400/1000 | ![]() | MNI Connect Video Conference on ‘Fed Balance Sheet – Comparison with Other Central Banks’ | |
11/09/2024 | 1430/1030 | ** | ![]() | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
11/09/2024 | 1700/1300 | ** | ![]() | US Note 10 Year Treasury Auction Result |
12/09/2024 | 0600/0800 | *** | ![]() | Inflation Report |
12/09/2024 | 0700/0900 | *** | ![]() | HICP (f) |
12/09/2024 | - | ![]() | OBR Fiscal Risks and Sustainability Report | |
12/09/2024 | 1215/1415 | *** | ![]() | ECB Deposit Rate |
12/09/2024 | 1215/1415 | *** | ![]() | ECB Main Refi Rate |
12/09/2024 | 1215/1415 | *** | ![]() | ECB Marginal Lending Rate |
12/09/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** | ![]() | Jobless Claims |
12/09/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** | ![]() | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
12/09/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** | ![]() | PPI |
12/09/2024 | 1230/0830 | * | ![]() | Building Permits |
12/09/2024 | 1230/0830 | * | ![]() | Household debt-to-income |
12/09/2024 | 1245/1445 | ![]() | ECB Monetary Policy Press Conference | |
12/09/2024 | 1345/1545 | ![]() | Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections publications | |
12/09/2024 | 1415/1615 | ![]() | ECB Podcast: Lagarde presents the latest monetary policy decisions | |
12/09/2024 | 1430/1030 | ** | ![]() | Natural Gas Stocks |
12/09/2024 | 1600/1200 | *** | ![]() | USDA Crop Estimates - WASDE |
12/09/2024 | 1700/1300 | *** | ![]() | US Treasury Auction Result for 30 Year Bond |
12/09/2024 | 1800/1400 | ** | ![]() | Treasury Budget |
13/09/2024 | 0430/1330 | ** | ![]() | Industrial Production |
13/09/2024 | 0645/0845 | *** | ![]() | HICP (f) |
13/09/2024 | 0830/0930 | ** | ![]() | Bank of England/Ipsos Inflation Attitudes Survey |
13/09/2024 | 0900/1100 | ** | ![]() | Industrial Production |
13/09/2024 | - | ![]() | ECB's Lagarde in Eurogroup meeting | |
13/09/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** | ![]() | Import/Export Price Index |
13/09/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** | ![]() | Wholesale Trade |
13/09/2024 | 1400/1000 | ** | ![]() | U. Mich. Survey of Consumers |
13/09/2024 | 1700/1300 | ** | ![]() | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
14/09/2024 | 0200/1000 | *** | ![]() | Fixed-Asset Investment |
14/09/2024 | 0200/1000 | *** | ![]() | Retail Sales |
14/09/2024 | 0200/1000 | *** | ![]() | Industrial Output |
14/09/2024 | 0200/1000 | ** | ![]() | Surveyed Unemployment Rate M/M |