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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
TWD
(MNI Australia) Spot USD/TWD sits just above session lows, last around 30.30/35. This is close to lows going back to late Feb, while the 200-day EMA sits slightly higher at 30.37. The simple 50-day MA is just above that at 30.38. There isn't much in the way of downside levels between here and the 30.00 handle.
- As usual TWD's beta with respect to broader USD/Asia moves is more muted. Today's modest TWD gains also come despite some weakness in local equities, with the Taiex off by around 0.8% at this point. This is line with weakness in the SOX through Monday's session, as core yields rebounded.
- The local equity index is seeing some resistance ahead of the 16000 level (last around 15720/25). Offshore investors have been firm buyers of local equities in the past 5 sessions, just under $1.7bn. For March as a whole, we have still seen -$1.4bn in outflows.
- We may need to see fresh highs in equities/further equity inflows to drive a test towards 30.00. Late yesterday the leading monitoring indicator (published by the National Development Council) edged down to 10, a fresh low back to early 2009. This indicator aims to be forward looking, the chart below plots it against y/y GDP.
- The other focus point will former President Ma Ying-jeou's continuing visit to mainland China.
Fig 1: Taiwan GDP Versus Monitoring Indicator
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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