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CLP Bears The Brunt Of Dollar Strength/Higher US Yields

LATAM FX
  • The Chilean Peso has retreated another 1% with multiple factors contributing to tailwinds for USDCLP.
  • Initially, political risk factors have weighed on the local currency with left-wing Gabriel Boric regaining the lead according to the latest Cadem poll.
  • Additionally, weak copper prices and softer risk sentiment has kept emerging market FX indices on the backfoot amid the stronger greenback.
  • Interestingly, Larrain Vial believe Chile's equity market has already priced in the country's institutional and financial instability. In a note they added a fourth pension fund withdrawal also seems more unlikely to be approved by Congress, which should boost confidence among investors.
  • USDCLP resistance remains 787.50, Aug 27 high, before the more notable bull trigger at 795.73, the Aug 9 high.
  • August CPI data due tomorrow is expected to see the annual headline figure rise to 4.8% after breaching the central bank's upper tolerance band for the first time since 2016 last month.
  • The Mexican peso is performing resiliently with USDMXN seeming unperturbed by moves elsewhere, consolidating in very narrow ranges to start the week.
  • August CPI data on Thursday remains the domestic highlight on the Mexican docket.
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