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- In a recent interview, CNB Governor Rusnok said that he 'cannot rule out' a bigger than 25bps hike in the coming meeting if the central bank's new inflation forecast indicates that such move is needed.
- This morning, CNB board Benda member also confirmed that the CNB should accelerate its monetary policy tightening campaign as the central bank should prevent the significant rise in CPI inflation from increasing LT inflation expectations.
- Hence, odds for a 50bps hike at the next CNB meeting (September 30) have been surging following the positive surprise in inflation last week (CPI inflation rose to 4.1% in August vs. 3.6% expected).
- Forward rates keep rising following recent policymakers 'hawkish' tone, with the FRA 3Mx6M and the 4Mx7M currently trading 87bps and 111bps above the Pribor 3M (see chart).
- Next important data to watch is the PPI inflation coming out on September 16.