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CNB Cuts Repo Rate But Strikes Cautious Notes, National Security Matters Draw Attention

CZECHIA
  • The koruna garnered some strength as CNB Governor Ales Michl mentioned the FX rate as one of inflationary risks ("we discussed the koruna exchange rate a lot") and struck cautious notes in his comments after the monetary policy decision. According to the Governor, current risks are "modestly" inflationary and their materialisation could affect the trajectory of interest rates. The decision itself did not provide any major surprises, with five Bank Board members supporting a 50bp cut to the two-week repo rate, outvoting two dissenters calling for a 75bp reduction.
  • Czechia hosts a summit of Visegrad Group Foreign Ministers today and the meeting is expected to expose familiar tensions over Russia/Ukraine, which were already evident during the recent leaders' summit. Hungarian and Slovak chief diplomats are the only ones in the EU who held in-person talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, while Polish and Czech ministers maintain some of the most hawkish stances on Russia. Some commentators have suggested that the Visegrad Group (also known as the "V4") has effectively transformed into a "V2+V2" format.
  • The executives of majority-state owned utility CEZ will hold a press conference this morning to comment on 2023 earnings, the outlook for this year and the qcquisition of gas company GasNet. The latter transaction still needs to be approved by the European Commission and the Ministry of Industry and Trade.
  • The House of Representatives designated the current Russian regime as the biggest national security threat in a resolution supported only by ruling coalition MPs. Separately, Lidove Noviny reported that the Czech army has started creating a register of potential conscripts after judging that it does not have enough manpower to respond to a potential spillover from the ongoing war in Ukraine.
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