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CNB Expected To Raise Policy Rate By 25bps on August 5

CZECHIA
  • The CNB is expected to increase its policy rate by 25bps to 0.75% tomorrow (Aug 5) in order to curb the inflationary pressures, which are expected to remain elevated in H2.
  • Based on recent policymakers' speeches, 'only' two MPC members (out of 7) - Michl and Dědek – aim to keep interest rates steady while the economic recovery is still taking place.
  • USDCZK has been retracing lower in the past few days, currently trading slightly below its 100DMA resistance at 21.46; next support to watch on the downside stands at 21.38 (50DMA), followed by 21.20. On the topside, first resistance to watch above 21.46 stands at 21.61 (200DMA).
  • Czech 10Y yield is flat this morning and is currently trading slightly below its 50DMA at 1.68%; key support to watch on the downside stands at 1.60%. On the topside, next resistance to watch above 1.68% (50DMA) stands at 1.74%.
  • Next CPI print (July) will come out on August 10.
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