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CNB Likely To Keep Rates Unchanged at 7% on Aug 4

CZECHIA
  • The CNB is meeting on August 4 and is likely to keep its policy rate steady at 7% despite GDP data coming in better than expected on Friday.
  • Median estimate is standing at 7.25%, with analysts’ consensus split between no hike and 25bps hike.
  • While Mora and Holub are expected to continue to support rate hikes to counter the inflationary pressures, ‘new’ members Frait and Zamrazilová are likely to vote for no change on Thursday given the deterioration in the macro outlook.
  • Even though Zamrazilová recently mentioned that she was considering ‘all options’ for the next meeting, the fall in business surveys with PMI dropping to 46.8 in July should weigh on her decision as the H2 outlook is expected to be continuously revised lower.
  • Dedek and new Governor Michl are also likely to vote for rates stability; the two members have constantly opposed the CNB board view in the past year, as both believe that inflation remains mostly driven by external factors outside of the monetary policy realm.
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