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CNB Likely To Proceed With a 50bps Hike On May 5

CZECHIA
  • CNB is meeting this week and is likely to continue its tightening process and hike its policy rate by 50bps to 5.5%.
  • Governor Rusnok recently commented that he could ‘not rule out’ further rate hikes but these would be ‘essentially cosmetic’, implying that the central bank is approaching the end point of its tightening cycle.
  • While some analysts expect this week’s hike to be the last one, other sell-side analysts are pricing in a terminal rate at 6% (STIR market pricing in a terminal rate between 6% and 6.25%).
  • The other area of focus at this week’s meeting will be whether the CNB turns more open to using the exchange rate more actively as a policy tool.
  • Renewed geopolitical tensions have been weighing on CEE currencies in recent weeks including CZK ahead of the CNB meeting.
  • EC President Von Der Leyen proposed a sixth round of sanctions against Russia at the European Parliament plenary session, including an eventual embargo on the import of Russian refined and crude oil.
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