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CNB Likely To Proceed With Another 'Aggressive' Hike on Nov 4

CZECHIA
  • Representatives of five opposition parties are scheduled to discuss plans to form a ruling coalition after jointly winning a majority of seats in the lower chamber of parliament last month (BBG).
  • As inflationary pressures are expected to remain elevated until at least the end of the year, participants continue to price in aggressive hikes in the coming meetings.
  • It seems that participants are split between a 50bps and 75bps hike at this week's meeting (Nov 4).
  • As CNB board seems to be very sensitive to the acceleration of inflation in recent months, an aggressive hike (75bps) is more likely at this meeting before slowing down the pace of the tightening cycle as business and economic sentiment indicators continue to deteriorate.
  • We saw last week that the Czech 2Y10Y yield curve inverted, therefore increasing the odds of an economic downturn.
  • Next important data to watch be October CPI print coming out on November 10.
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