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CNB Preview - December 2023: Approaching Turning Point

CZECHIA
  • The Czech National Bank (CNB) is heading for another live meeting, with the decision to inaugurate the ratecutting cycle hanging in the balance.
  • The economy has developed more or less in line with expectations, with disinflation undergoing brief disruption caused by statistical effects, while headwinds to economic activity remain, potentially supporting the dovish case.
  • However, the impact of the traditional repricing at the start of the new year continues to provide a significant source of uncertainty, with policymakers concerned about the implications for the inflation outlook. We think that the odds of the CNB cutting rates this week are close to 50-50 and the course of the meeting may sway the vote one way or the other.

See the full preview, with a summary of sell-side analyst views, here.

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