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CNB Releases MonPol Meeting Minutes, Final Q1 GDP Revised Slightly Lower

CZECHIA
  • The minutes of the CNB's monetary policy meeting last week revealed that the two policymakers who unsuccessfully sought a 25bp rate hike were Tomas Holub and Karina Kubelkova. However, the usual hawkish dissenter Holub assessed that last week's meeting was the last opportunity to raise interest rates and the only viable strategy thereafter would be keeping rates "higher for longer." The view that interest rates will need to remain at current or higher levels for longer was shared by most Bank Board members. The publication of the minutes ends the CNB's media blackout.
  • The central bank has started publishing a description of the risks to the current inflation forecast after monetary policy meetings at which there is no new macroeconomic forecast. Monetary Department staff said that "the newly available information obtained since the spring forecast was prepared implies only slightly higher headline inflation at the monetary policy horizon and a slightly later decline in market interest rates than in the spring forecast."
  • Lawmakers are expected to approve the government's proposal to increase the excise tax on diesel today, unwinding a tax-cut implemented to alleviate pressure on consumers from higher energy prices.
  • On the data front, Czechia's final Q1 GDP was unexpectedly revised lower to -0.5% Y/Y from the preliminary reading of -0.4%.
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