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CNH Can't Hold Gains, As US Yield Uptrend Continues.


USD/CNH got close to 7.2200 overnight, before rebounding towards 7.2600, with current levels not too far away from this figure level. The US-CH 2yr differential continued to trend higher, with fresh cyclical highs in the US 2yr overnight. We are back close to levels that prevailed prior to yesterday's headline around reduced quarantine stays for overseas arrivals.

  • Onshore spot closed near session lows at 7.2145, while the 4:30pm level (for the fixing estimate) was higher at 7.2377. FX settlement data is due for September today, which may be of interest given depreciation pressures in the month. The other focus point will be the CNY fixing.
  • A Bloomberg survey of traders suggests the CNY fixing will be weakened post the Party Congress (see this link for more details).
  • Yesterday's fixing, at 7.1188, was the highest since mid 2020. It broke away from the pattern, albeit modestly, of outcomes close to 7.1100, which had been in place since late September.
  • The China Golden Dragon Index rose 0.80% overnight, only a modest reversal of Wednesday's 7% plunge. There are also reports this morning the US may expand its tech ban on China to areas such as quantum computing and AI (see this link for more details).

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