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CNH Firm, Re-Test of Cycle Highs on the Cards

CHINA
  • Chinese currencies remain firm this morning, with USD/CNH pressuring the day's lows of 6.3881 at typing. Move remains primarily USD-led at this stage, with the greenback following yields lower so far Wednesday. A break through the week's lows of 6.3849 would bring the recent cycle lows back into play at 6.3525 (markets have steered clear of here since the PBoC acted on the FX RRR last week).
  • Options bias this morning appears to be favouring USD/CNY downside also, with some of the larger trades crossing including structures consistent with a 6.30/6.40 put spread expiring in early September (partially funded by selling a 6.5159 call)
  • Markets continue to watch recent activities by the Chinese authorities to temper domestic inflationary pressures, with reports overnight suggesting coal prices could be capped ahead of peak demand season this summer. Follows overnight PPI data hitting 9% - the highest rate since 2008.
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