CNH Holds Steady Amid Mixed Inflation& Trade Trends

USD/Asia pairs sit modestly off Thursday NY session highs, but downside is proving to be fairly limited at this stage. The MAS held steady as expected, while China data showed flat inflation, but export growth up off recent lows. Early next week in China we have the 1yr MLF decision and we still await the September aggregate finance/new loans data. Next week also delivers the BoK and BI decisions.

• Spot USD/CNH sits down a touch from NY closing levels on Thursday, the pair last near 7.3070. We saw a brief dip towards 7.3000 as headlines crossed around a state backed equity market stabilization fund, but there was little positive follow through. Data wise, Headline CPI was weighed by lower food prices, while exports were slightly better than expected but still down in y/y terms.
• Spot USD/KRW has found resistance on moves above 13550. The pair last near 1349. This has kept the 1 month NDF close to NY closing levels from Thursday, last around 1347. The September unemployment rate ticked up to 2.6%, in line with expectations. However, employment growth also improved. local equities are under pressure, off 1% at this stage.
• USD/SGD has sits modestly lower, last under 1.3690. Lows were around 1.3680, while we tracked closer to 1.3700 prior to the MAS announcement. The policy decision was largely as expected. MAS is likely to stay on hold, but the bar for a further tightening is high. The central bank is moving to 4 meetings per year, with the next in January. The NEER (Goldman Sachs estimate) is a touch higher post the MAS. Q3 GDP surprised on the uspide.
• The Ringgit has been pressured this morning as local participants digest yesterday's US CPI print. CPI rose more than expected in September however the Y/Y increase was the lowest since 2021. USD/MYR prints at 4.7315/55 the pair is ~0.5% higher this morning and sits a touch off the top of its recent range. Looking ahead the local docket is empty until next Thursday when September Trade Balance is due. September CPI crosses next Friday (20 Oct).
• The Rupee has opened dealing little changed from Wednesday's closing levels. USD/INR sits at 82.24/25. Participants are digesting yesterday weaker than forecast India CPI print of 5.02% and the marginally higher than expected US CPI print. Due today we have September Trade Balance, a deficit of $23.2bn is expected.
• USD/PHP has firmed in the first part of today's trade. The pair was last at 56.815, down slightly from highs of 56.855. We closed yesterday at 56.67, losing around 0.25% in PHP terms so far today. This keeps the pair comfortably within the rough 56.50/57.00 range seen the early part of August. The focus domestically will remain on interest rate risks, with BSP eyeing the early Nov Fed meeting. Even if the BSP matches any Fed renewed hawkishness it may not be enough to curb PHP weakness, although 57.00 remains a firm resistance point at this stage.