CNH Not Seeing Positive Spill Over From Higher Equities

USD/Asia pairs are mixed. CNH is not seeing positive spill over from better equity sentiment, while USD/KRW has risen amid on-going offshore equity outflows. USD/THB is up from earlier lows, and USD/IDR tracks recent ranges, with the market like mindful of BI intervention risks. Tomorrow's calendar is headlined by Q3 South Korean GDP. Also out is Singapore unemployment figures and IP data.

• USD/CNH saw brief downside in the first part of trade, onshore equities surged at the open amid fresh fiscal stimulus. However, we couldn't get beyond 7.3069 and we last tracked near 7.3140. Local equities are away from earlier highs, which has weighed at the margin. Speculation that monetary easing will be needed to in conjunction with fresh fiscal stimulus (particularly from a liquidity standpoint), may also be curbing CNH.
• The won is underperforming in the first part of Wednesday trade. The 1 month NDF is back to 1346, which is above Tuesday highs and around 0.30% weaker versus NY closing levels. It is also back above the 20-day EMA. Highs from Monday in the pair came in close to 1353. Local equities are generally underperforming broader regional trends. The Kospi sits -0.35% weaker at this stage. Headwinds have come from weaker US Nasdaq futures, while offshore equity outflows have been -$335.4mn so far today.
• The Rupee has opened marginally firmer after being closed for the observance of a national holiday on Tuesday. In early trade on Wednesday we sit at 83.11/12 ~0.1% below Monday's closing levels. A reminder that the data docket is empty this week. Looking ahead the next release of note is on 31 Oct which is Sep Fiscal Deficit and Eight Infrastructure Industry Survey.
• The SGD NEER (per Goldman Sachs estimates) sits little changed from opening levels and well within recent ranges after firming earlier this week. The measure sits ~0.5% below the top of the band. USD/SGD sits a touch below the 20-Day EMA ($1.3680) on Wednesday, the pair firmed yesterday as broader USD flows dominated. The local data docket is empty today, looking ahead tomorrow September Industrial Production crosses. On Fridays Q3 Home Prices are due as is September Unemployment.
• The Ringgit has ticked higher in early dealing today, USD/MYR faced resistance ahead of the 4.80 handle and has fallen ~0.3%. The pair sits at 4.7685/4.7725, recent gains have only been trimmed and USD/MYR is ~6% above August's opening levels. A reminder that the data calendar is empty this week. Looking ahead the next release of note is next Wednesdays S&P Global October Mfg PMI.
• USD/THB sits near 36.14 in recent trade, modestly firmer in baht terms for the session. Earlier lows in the pair were at 36.055. This was fresh lows for October, but we couldn't test the 36.00 figure level. Note as well, the 50-day EMA comes in at 35.99. On the topside, the 20-day EMA is near 36.37.
  Baht is the top performing EM Asia currency in October to date, up nearly 0.80%. Fundamentally, not a lot appears to have changed for the currency, although in early October the NEER (J.P. Morgan Index) got to fresh YTD lows. Hence part of the baht rebound may have reflected some market participants seeing fresh value in the currency.
• USD/IDR sits a little higher in the first part of Wednesday dealings. We last tracked just near 15865, around 0.10% weaker in IDR terms. This came after closing yesterday at 15850, which also marked lows for the session. The 1 month USD/IDR NDF has followed a similar trajectory, with the pair unable to sustain breaches sub 15850.
• USD/PHP sits within recent ranges, last near 56.80. Focus is whether the BSP delivers an out of cycle hike tomorrow, with Governor Remolona stating this was possible in an interview yesterday.