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CNH: Testing Key Fibo Support, Break Would Reinforce Bearish Case

EUR

EUR/CNH has descended onto the 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Jul 2020 rally at CNH7.7579, which limited losses in Nov last year. The rate remains heavy and last trades at CNH7.7693, poised to extend its losing streak to nine consecutive days. The 50-DMA's move above the 100-DMA failed to reign in EUR/CNH sales, which resumed after the failed Jan 22 retest of the neckline of a double top formation.

  • A clean break under the aforementioned 76.4% Fibo support, as well as Nov 4, 2020 & Nov 18, 2020 lows situated within touching distance from that level, would give bears a signal that momentum is behind them, opening May 7, 2020 low of CNH7.6540. Bulls need a rebound above the neckline at CNH7.9105 to take back control.


  • Worth looking at longer-term trends as well. The rate has sank through its 100-WMA & 200-WMA this week and the latter moving average provided a layer of support last Nov. In addition, EUR/CNH is now probing the water under its 50-MMA after failing to break below there in Nov 2020.

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