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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
CNH
The wedge between USD/CNH and broader USD trends has persisted, albeit with the USD not showing a clear trend overnight. The chart below plots USD/CNH versus the BBDXY. USD/CNH got above 7.2300 during NY hours, but now sits back close to 7.2200.
- Onshore USD/CNY spot finished just above 7.2000, but the 4:30pm level (for the fixing estimate) was lower at 7.1952.
- The CNY fixing continues to flat line near the 7.1100 level, a trend that has been evident since late September.
- Despite USD/CNH threatening recent highs, implied vol trends are edging lower. The 1 week is back to the low 9% region, versus recent highs around 11%, likewise for the 1 month, last at 8.5%, against 9.4% around a week ago. Risk reversals are also trending lower (1 month last at +1.1750).
- It also remains unclear when Q3 GDP may print, or September activity and trade figures. Note tomorrow the 1yr and 5yr loan prime decisions are scheduled to print, although whether this takes place remains to be seen. No change is expected (1yr at 3.65%, 5yr at 4.30%).
Fig 1: USD/CNH & BBDXY
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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