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MNI Credit Weekly: Exit the Dragon

  • MNI Credit Weekly: Exit the Dragon

    Spreads managed a small move tighter, somewhat surprisingly after several names underperformed on earnings releases. Consumer cyclicals was the laggard with several Auto companies under pressure.
  • Earnings season has brought downside risk with Kering, Universal Music, Stellantis, Ford and Schaeffler all moving wider. China has featured heavily in management discussions, with issuers exposed to construction, autos, luxury, trucks, chips and metals mentioning weakness there.
  • Idiosyncratic risk won’t go away either with breakup possibilities pressuring Warner Bros. Thames Water finally got downgraded to High Yield and moves closer to the end game.
  • The big macro news of the week was the US GDP print, which came in well above expectations. Core PCE inflation was also higher than expectations, albeit lower than the prior period, but this seemed to have little impact on traders’ expectations of a September US rate cut. Eurozone flash PMI, conversely, surprised to the downside.
  • Primary had only a solitary deal this week in €IG world, for what we calculate to be the quietest week of the year. A big week of earnings, alongside US GDP, are likely reasons. 
  • Fund flows were firm across products and currency.

    Full piece here: 24.07.26 MNI Credit Weekly.pdf
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