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CNY Fixing - At Neutral

CNH

The USD/CNY fixing printed at 6.8814, versus a Bloomberg consensus of 6.8811.

  • Today's fixing represents a +3pip surprise in USD/CNY terms, so essentially close to neutral. The rolling 5-day sum of the error term is -33pips, little changed from yesterday.
  • The PBoC Governor stated in a speech recently the authorities have largely ended FX intervention. This is line with a neutral fixing bias. This could of course change if we see renewed depreciation pressures and a move back to the 7.00 handle, but for now the authorities appear content with FX levels.
  • USD/CNH is slightly lower, last under 6.8800. We have Q1 GDP and March monthly activity figures coming out in around 40mins.
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