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CNY Fixing Close To Expectations

CNH

The USD/CNY fix printed at 7.0899, versus a Bloomberg consensus of 7.0903.

  • Today's outcome represents just a -4 pip surprise, so very close to market expectations. This compares with Friday's outcome of +151 pips.
  • With the China currency now comfortably off its lows, the authorities may fell there is less necessity to lean against depreciation pressures. However, as we noted last Friday, we would be surprised to see the start of a consistent run of upside surprises (in USD/CNY terms, i.e. shifting to a depreciation bias).
  • USD/CNH pushed to 7.1130 in the early part of trading, as the USD rebounded in the first part of trading on the back of hawkish Fed speak.
  • We are now back to the 7.0600/50 region though. Some support may be evident just below this level, which coincides with Friday's low. The market bias is likely to fade upticks in USD/CNH given improved short-term sentiment around the property sector and positive developments around the CZS late last week
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