Colder Weather and Red Sea Diversions Supportive of TTF

Front month TTF is slighlty higher Friday supported this week by colder January weather forecasts and risks to LNG supplies passing the Red Sea. On the downside, gas is being capped by strong near-term supplies, high storage levels and longer-term demand switching.

• TTF JAN 24 up 0.6% at 34.4€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 up 1.1% at 34.38€/MWh
• TTF WIN 24 up 0.1% at 38.84€/MWh
• Kpler reported Thursday that at least 8 LNG vessels have diverted away from the Red Sea and towards the Cape of Good Hope due to ongoing security issues.
• Germany’s Uniper is pausing Red Sea LNG shipments headed for Europe and elsewhere amid ongoing Houthi rebels’ attacks on ships in the region.
• ICIS reported that Qatar flows had largely been unimpacted so far, a key supplier for Europe.
• Russia’s Novatek sent force majeure notices to some LNG buyers from its upcoming export facility Arctic LNG 2 as sanctions from the US threaten the startup of the facility that was scheduled in the coming weeks according to Bloomberg.