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MNI China Daily Summary: Thursday, March 30

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Collins Adds To FOMC Members Looking For Slower Pace

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  • Boston Fed’s Collins (non-voter) notes the need to slow the pace of rate hikes, particularly with risks now seen more two-sided (although she has noticed growing two-sided risk as rates increase in the past). Seemingly one of the median FOMC dots for 2023, she sees rates going to “just above 5%, and then holding rates at that level for some time”.
  • The day’s increase in the FOMC-dated OIS implied terminal on stronger US data stalls at 4.89% (+3bps on the day, +5bps intraday).
  • The expected slowing in CPI shelter costs play an important role: “A key piece of this has been sizeable increases in shelter costs. However, monetary policy tightening has slowed new rent growth considerably, which should lead to a moderation in shelter inflation starting in the spring of this year.”
  • It follows most recently Dallas Fed’s Logan (’23 voter) yesterday looking for 25bp hikes but potentially to a higher level if financial conditions ease.
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  • Boston Fed’s Collins (non-voter) notes the need to slow the pace of rate hikes, particularly with risks now seen more two-sided (although she has noticed growing two-sided risk as rates increase in the past). Seemingly one of the median FOMC dots for 2023, she sees rates going to “just above 5%, and then holding rates at that level for some time”.
  • The day’s increase in the FOMC-dated OIS implied terminal on stronger US data stalls at 4.89% (+3bps on the day, +5bps intraday).
  • The expected slowing in CPI shelter costs play an important role: “A key piece of this has been sizeable increases in shelter costs. However, monetary policy tightening has slowed new rent growth considerably, which should lead to a moderation in shelter inflation starting in the spring of this year.”
  • It follows most recently Dallas Fed’s Logan (’23 voter) yesterday looking for 25bp hikes but potentially to a higher level if financial conditions ease.