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Collins Helps Give Fed Implied Rates An Extra Nudge

STIR
  • FOMC-dated OIS implied rates have pushed higher in recent trading, buoyed by Collins saying I think there is more work to do with additional increments potentially being required. She doesn’t vote in either 2023 or 2024 although provides a useful update having last heard her speak on mon pol in May.
  • It pushes Sept pricing up to +4.5bps (+2bp on the day) which if sustained would be the highest close since Aug 1 and builds to a cumulative 13bp to the terminal 5.46% in Nov (+2.5bp).
  • Cut pricing drifts lower, with 46bp from terminal to Jun’24 from 50bp yesterday, although still off the 44bps two days ago. The trimming of cut expectations comes despite hearing a further fleshing out of dovish remarks from Harker (’23) and softer-than-expected durable goods data, albeit with stronger releases seen in both jobless claims and the KC Fed manufacturing index.

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