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COLOMBIA: Barclays Expect BanRep to Maintain Easing Pace This Month

COLOMBIA
  • An increasingly negative output gap, declining inflation pressures, reduced external vulnerability and the beginning of US Fed rate cuts likely gives BanRep room to continue the easing cycle, according to Barclays. They see the possibility of 475bp of rate cuts and the potential to accelerate the pace; however, the truckers' strike and fiscal noise reduces the likelihood of an acceleration of the pace this month.
  • The COP has outperformed its high-yielding peers in LatAm, and Barclays expect this to continue in the near term. A cautious BanRep makes the peso one of the few remaining carry currencies, in their view. However, COP could underperform into next year as carry erodes, which has been a consistent theme across EM.
  • In rates, Barclays think it is unlikely markets price a lower terminal for the time being. They do, however, see room for TES 42s yields to tighten. Risks are still on a challenging fiscal outlook amid continued underperformance of tax collection, but this could be offset by a lower-than-budgeted interest bill.
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