MNI BRIEF: China Nov Exports Slows, Imports Slide

MNI BRIEF: China Crude Oil Imports Accelerate In November

RBA SAYS SOME UPSIDE INFLATION RISKS HAVE EASED.

CHINA NOV EXPORTS +6.7% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +8.9% Y/Y: CUSTOMS

MNI: CHINA YTD EXPORTS +6.7% Y/Y IN YUAN TERM: CUSTOMS

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY90.3 Bln via OMO Tuesday

MNI: RBA LEAVES CASH RATE AT 4.35%

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: Austria, UK Auction on Tuesday

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: Spain, Belgium Auction on Tuesday

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

COLOMBIA: BBVA Expect 50bp Cut In July, Before Bolder 75bp Move In September

COLOMBIA
  • BanRep's decision to cut the rate by 50bp, with the balance of votes still split (4 to 2), is in line with the expectations of analysts, markets and BBVA Research in particular. The balance of activity and inflation remains around what was anticipated, with some slightly better than anticipated growth and inflation with some surprise in food, but not deviating much from expected levels. All of the above supports the status quo in the policy stance with 50bp cuts at each meeting.
  • On this occasion, the discourse on the external context was maintained, particularly with regard to the less comfortable financial conditions and the deterioration in the exchange rate and risk premia. This is a factor that has been gaining more relevance in the Board's communication and BBVA consider that it raises the relation of the rate reduction pace to the Fed's rate policy cycle. 
  • With this, BBVA’s scenario incorporates a rate cut in the US in September, which added to inflation resuming its downward path in August and an expected weakening in the labour market, should lead to a more accelerated rate cut in Colombia, of 75bp, starting in September and for some additional meetings thereafter.
  • All in all, BBVA continue to expect a gradual rate reduction in July and a rate that ends the year at 8.5%. On this expectation, there is a risk that rates will close higher, especially if the Federal Reserve does not initiate its tapering cycle in September.
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market News
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market News

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.