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Coming Up: Retail Sales Seen Falling In July

US DATA

Coming up at 0830ET / 1330BST...US Retail Sales(July):

  • Retail sales are expected to have pulled back in July as spending shifted away from goods towards services, with Bloomberg forecasting a decline of 0.3% after June's 0.6% increase.
  • A decline in vehicle sales likely offset most of the expected gains in restaurant and gas station sales, analysts say.
  • Excluding vehicle sales, sales should increase 0.2% after rising 1.3% in June, according to Bloomberg.
  • Excluding vehicles and gas stations, sales are seen dropping by 0.1% (vs +1.1% June), while control group sales are expected to fall 0.2%, as highlighted in the latest MNI Reality Check.
  • Recall last month's release had hardly any reaction (big beat on headline led to knee jerk drop in Treasuries, but weak revisions pared those losses completely).
  • In today's release, an upside beat could cap today's risk-off bid slightly, but the data is considered too volatile for any real conviction moves.
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