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Commerzbank Expect Koruna To Recover, Don't See CPI Data As Particularly Benign

CZECHIA

Following the release of Czech inflation figures yesterday, Commerzbank write that the data "were not as benign as some media reports portrayed" as the deceleration in core inflation could be "misleading".

  • Commerzbank argue that the M/M price increase was higher than expected (+0.2% versus Bloomberg median estimate of +0.1%), while the "disinflationary influence of energy and commodity prices has ended already".
  • They note that "market interest rates have nevertheless dropped and the exchange rate weakened rather sharply because of sentiment spilling over from the Polish market," albeit the CNB should be more cautious than their Polish colleagues.
  • In light of this view, Commerzbank "expect Czech rate cut expectations to temper and the koruna to regain some ground in coming months."
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