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Commerzbank Forecast USDTRY to Head Towards 30.00 During Q1 2024

  • Commerzbank say they did not notice any particular driver to TRY weakness yesterday – just a continuation of the gradual depreciation that has been underway as the new economic policy team has tried to dismantle capital controls and restrictions.
  • They note that there were some secondary developments: The balance of payments data for October came in worse-than-expected and capital flow turned less positive (foreign investors exited the equity market for the third month in a row, and also sold local government bonds).
  • For Commerzbank, two conclusions are significant: 1) the current-account balance is deteriorating once again; monetary tightening is yet to put a sustained dent into this. 2) Higher interest rates are not yet resulting in sustained capital inflow.
  • They forecast USDTRY heading gradually up towards the 30.00 level during Q1 2024.

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