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Free AccessCommerzbank Forecast USDTRY to Head Towards 30.00 During Q1 2024
- Commerzbank say they did not notice any particular driver to TRY weakness yesterday – just a continuation of the gradual depreciation that has been underway as the new economic policy team has tried to dismantle capital controls and restrictions.
- They note that there were some secondary developments: The balance of payments data for October came in worse-than-expected and capital flow turned less positive (foreign investors exited the equity market for the third month in a row, and also sold local government bonds).
- For Commerzbank, two conclusions are significant: 1) the current-account balance is deteriorating once again; monetary tightening is yet to put a sustained dent into this. 2) Higher interest rates are not yet resulting in sustained capital inflow.
- They forecast USDTRY heading gradually up towards the 30.00 level during Q1 2024.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.