Commerzbank Forecasts Winter Gas Demand Higher YoY

European natural gas demand is expected to be higher this coming winter compared with the previous winter, which should boost prices and tighten the market, Commerzbank said in a note.

• “The forecast is subject to a high degree of uncertainty, as demand could rise higher than expected due to factors such as a significantly colder winter, a lagged effect of tighter monetary policy, lower prices compared with last year and a complete halt to Russian gas imports, the bank said. Competition for LNG imports could also intensify due to stronger demand outside Europe”, Commerzbank said.
• Commerzbank forecasts TTF at €50/MWh at the end of 2023, lower than most of the other analysts according to a Bloomberg survey. TTF Dec trades at €47.35/MWh at the time of writing.
• For the winter of 2024-2025, there is also the risk of higher demand from the economic side as the US and the eurozone should be out of recession by then, according to Commerzbank.