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Commerzbank Leans Towards the 50bps Option Today

POLAND
  • Chances are that rates would have been on hold today, or been hiked by a small 15bp if inflation had been stable.
  • However, the October flash CPI estimate saw inflation surging to nearly 7% – this has led the FX market to expect a larger rate hike today – anything less would be viewed as irresponsible monetary policy, hence the market has priced out such scenarios.
  • Most analysts expect 25bp or 50bp hike today, while a small minority expect even 100bp.
  • Commerzbank analysts lean towards the 50bp option on balance; they think that given the scary inflation rates in recent months, NBP would want to get the rate back up to at least the pre-pandemic 1.50% by the end of this year.

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